Takaichi Cabinet approval at a 'record low' 65.9%, yet still exceptionally high
Reading the defamatory-video issue and revision of the Imperial House Law through the JNN opinion poll

Article Overview In JNN's July 2026 opinion poll, the Takaichi Cabinet's approval rating fell 4.1 percentage points from the previous month to its lowest level since the cabinet took office, at 65.9％. Even so, viewed eight months after the cabinet took office, the approval rating remains exceptionally high. This article neutrally organizes the survey findings, focusing not only on the size of the decline in approval but also on assessments of the explanations surrounding the defamatory-video issue, generational differences, Diet proceedings, and the large share of undecided responses concerning revision of the Imperial House Law.

Update This article is based on an analysis published by TBS NEWS DIG on July 12, 2026, and the JNN opinion poll conducted on July 4 and 5. Subsequently, the law revising the Imperial House Law and related legislation was Passed and enacted at a plenary session of the House of Councillors on July 17, 2026 was reported. To record public opinion and the issues under discussion before enactment, the following section focuses mainly on the situation as of July 12.

1. Even at 65.9%, the 'lowest since the cabinet took office,' the absolute level remains high

The Takaichi Cabinet's approval rating was 65.9% and its disapproval rating 30.8%. Compared with the previous month, approval fell 4.1 percentage points while disapproval rose 3.4 points. Looking only at the direction of the numbers, evaluations of the administration worsened, but Approval still remains in the mid-60% range This point should not be overlooked.

According to an analysis by TBS's political desk, since 2000 only three cabinets—the Koizumi Cabinet, the second Abe Cabinet, and the Kishida Cabinet—had maintained approval ratings of 60% or higher eight months after taking office. Although the Takaichi Cabinet's rating has fallen by about 15 points since its launch, it can still be regarded as historically unusual for maintaining such a high level without a decisive policy failure triggering a sharp decline.

2. 'High approval' and 'dissatisfaction with handling of specific issues' can coexist

A high cabinet approval rating does not mean that every policy or explanation is supported. In this survey, regarding reports that Prime Minister Takaichi's secretary was involved in creating a defamatory video targeting another camp, 51% said they were 'not satisfied' with the prime minister's response, exceeding the 43% who said they were 'satisfied.'

This result shows that support for the administration as a whole is distinct from evaluations of accountability on individual issues This indicates that even among supporters there may be people who approve of the administration overall while remaining dissatisfied with how it explained or handled this particular issue. It would be inappropriate to interpret the approval rating alone as meaning full confidence in the administration.

3. Evaluations differ substantially between younger and older generations

According to JNN's analysis, cabinet approval has continued to be higher among younger generations and lower among older generations. The same pattern appeared in responses to the defamatory-video issue: fewer than 30% of respondents under 30 said they were 'not satisfied,' compared with more than 60% among respondents aged 60 and older.

The survey results alone cannot establish the reasons for this generational gap. Possible factors, however, include differences by age in the media through which people obtain information, the forms of explanation they expect from politicians, and how seriously they perceive the issue. look at cross-tabulations by age group, not only the overall average is important when interpreting opinion polls appropriately.

4. Did the disruption of Diet proceedings contribute to the decline in approval?

Diet proceedings temporarily became abnormal after opposition parties objected to the ruling parties' attempt to begin deliberations on a bill to reduce the number of Diet seats and boycotted committee and plenary sessions. Some within the administration suggested that this disruption may have contributed to the decline in approval.

However, in the JNN poll, 58% supported the bill to reduce the number of proportional-representation seats by 45, and more than 70% said they 'could not understand' the opposition parties' absence from deliberations. It is therefore not possible to conclude simply that the disruption of Diet proceedings worked only against the ruling parties. Rather, dissatisfaction may have accumulated toward both the ruling and opposition parties because policy deliberations did not move forward.

5. A notable number of 'undecided' responses on revision of the Imperial House Law

Proposals to maintain the number of imperial family members centered on two mechanisms: allowing female members of the Imperial Family to retain their status after marriage, and admitting male descendants in the male line of former imperial branches into the Imperial Family through adoption. A particular point of debate was how the system would treat a son born to an adopted man—specifically, whether that child would be eligible for imperial succession.

On revising the Imperial House Law during the current Diet session, 24% were in favor, 27% were opposed, and 46% answered 'cannot say either way.' On granting eligibility for imperial succession to the child of an adopted male, 29% were in favor, 22% were opposed, and 45% were undecided. More important than the gap between support and opposition is the fact that nearly half of respondents withheld judgment is more important.

The survey alone cannot identify why so many respondents remained undecided. Possible factors include the complexity of the system, the overlap between issues of maintaining the number of imperial family members and imperial succession, and the possibility that information necessary for understanding—such as the legal status of family members and treatment in the family register and imperial genealogy—had not been sufficiently shared.

6. 'The will of the people' is not the same as a single opinion poll

Article 1 of the Constitution of Japan states that the Emperor's position derives from the will of the people. However, a single opinion poll conducted at a specific point in time cannot simply be equated with the constitutional concept of 'the will of the people.' Poll results can vary depending on the wording of questions, timing, composition of respondents, and survey methodology.

Even so, the fact that institutional reform proceeded while 'undecided' was the most common response provides material for considering how information should be provided to the public and how deliberation should take place. What matters is not only the numerical balance of support and opposition, but also Why were so many people unable to decide? visualize these points and carefully explain the purpose, scope, and future implications of the institutional changes.

7. How JNN conducts its opinion polls and how to interpret them

JNN uses random-digit dialing (RDD), contacting randomly generated landline and mobile phone numbers. On July 4 and 5, 2026, it surveyed 2,959 people aged 18 or older nationwide and received 1,037 valid responses, for a valid response rate of 35.0%. The survey is described as being conducted through direct interviews by survey staff rather than automated voice calls.

Compared with online surveys, RDD can help reduce overrepresentation of respondents with a strong interest in a particular issue, but it cannot capture the characteristics of people who did not answer the phone or declined to participate. Accordingly, rather than placing excessive emphasis on differences of 0.1 percentage point, it is more important to direction of the approval rating, generational differences, size of the undecided group, and consistency across multiple questions need to be read together.

Summary: What a single figure of 65.9% does not reveal about public opinion

The Takaichi Cabinet's approval rating of 65.9% was its lowest since taking office, but remained exceptionally high for an administration eight months into its term. At the same time, a majority were not satisfied with the handling of the defamatory-video issue, with clear differences by age group. On revision of the Imperial House Law, more people withheld judgment than supported or opposed it, highlighting challenges in public understanding of the system and the depth of national debate.

When reading opinion polls, it is important to look not only at rises and falls in approval ratings but also at individual issues, generational differences, undecided responses, survey methodology, and the timing of the survey needs to be examined. The first step toward accurately understanding political data is to interpret multiple indicators carefully rather than treating a single number as full confidence in the administration or as the will of the entire population.

Related Keywords

#TakaichiCabinet #JNNOpinionPoll #CabinetApprovalRating #SanaeTakaichi #DefamatoryVideo #OpinionPollAnalysis #ImperialHouseLawRevision #SecuringImperialFamilyMembers #FormerImperialBranches #ImperialSuccession #PoliticalData #DataAnalysis